Factolytics
Predictive Investing Case Studies
Predictive Analytics for Markets

Which Stocks, Index Funds, and ETFs Might Run Hot?

This Factolytics investing series walks through how data-driven models try to estimate which stocks, index funds, and ETFs are most likely to outperform. These are educational case studies — not guarantees, and not personal investment advice — but they show exactly how the numbers can be used to build a watchlist with intent.

Focus: stocks, index funds, ETFs Emphasis on process, not stock tips Members get data, SQL, and model sketches

Browse predictive investing case studies

Use the tags as mental filters. The content is educational and process-focused — nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security.

All Hot Stocks Hot Index Funds Hot ETFs Momentum Factor Tilts Flows & Liquidity
Hot Stocks • Earnings Momentum
Earnings Surprise Radar: Finding Stocks Wall Street Just Mispriced
Signals: surprise vs. expectations, revisions, post-earnings drift • Horizon: 1–3 months
This case study tracks companies that just beat or missed earnings expectations and looks at how price reacts over the next few weeks. The model estimates a “post-earnings drift score” based on surprise magnitude, analyst revisions, and volume spikes, flagging stocks where history suggests the move may not be finished yet.
Hot Stocks • Quality + Momentum
Quality Meets Momentum: Screening for Durable Runners
Signals: ROE, margin trends, debt levels, 6–12M price momentum • Horizon: 6–18 months
Here, the model blends fundamental strength with technical momentum. Stocks get a quality score (profitability, balance sheet, earnings stability) and a momentum score (trend strength vs. the market). The composite “hot stock” score ranks names that are both fundamentally sound and already attracting buyers.
Hot Stocks • Short Interest
Short Squeeze Radar: When High Short Interest Meets Positive Catalysts
Signals: short interest %, days to cover, news sentiment • Horizon: days–weeks
This study looks at heavily shorted stocks that suddenly see positive news, improving sentiment, or technical breakouts. The model estimates a “squeeze risk score”, highlighting situations where bears may be forced to buy back shares, potentially driving sharp upside moves.
Hot Index Funds • Factor Tilt
Factor Rotation: When Value, Growth, or Small Caps Take the Lead
Signals: relative performance of style indices, macro regime markers • Horizon: 6–12 months
Instead of stock-picking, this model looks at style and size indices — value, growth, small cap, large cap, quality, etc. It tracks rolling relative returns and macro indicators to estimate a “factor tailwind score” for each index fund, suggesting which tilts historically tend to run hot in similar environments.
Hot Index Funds • Trend Following
Simple Trend Models on Broad Market Index Funds
Signals: moving averages, drawdown, volatility regimes • Horizon: months–years
A trend-following case study that uses basic technical rules on big, broad index funds. Think “above or below a long-term moving average”, combined with volatility filters. The model produces a trend health score, reflecting how favorable the backdrop has been historically for staying invested in that index.
Hot Index Funds • Risk Budgeting
Risk-Budgeted Index Blends: Who Deserves More Weight?
Signals: realized vol, correlations, return per unit risk • Horizon: strategic
This study treats each index fund as a building block in a portfolio and asks a simple question: given recent return and risk, which funds deserve a bigger slice of the risk budget? The output is a tilt score that nudges weights toward indices that have delivered more return per unit of volatility.
Hot ETFs • Themes & Sectors
Thematic ETF Momentum: Surfing the Strongest Stories
Signals: 3–12M returns, dispersion vs. benchmark, news flow • Horizon: 3–12 months
This case compares theme and sector ETFs against a broad benchmark, tracking which stories (cloud, energy, healthcare, dividends, etc.) have been leading. The model outputs a theme momentum score that ranks ETFs based on relative strength and persistence of their outperformance.
Hot ETFs • Flows & Liquidity
Follow the Money: ETF Flows and Liquidity Heat
Signals: daily net flows, turnover, bid-ask spreads • Horizon: days–months
Here the focus is on where new money is actually going. The model monitors net inflows, trading volume, and liquidity measures to compute a “flow heat score” for ETFs. Historically, persistent inflows combined with tight spreads often line up with stronger, more stable trends.
Hot ETFs • Multi-Asset
Multi-Asset ETF Dashboards: Reading the Cross-Asset Weather
Signals: equity, bond, commodity, FX ETFs; cross-asset correlations • Horizon: tactical
This case study treats ETFs as proxies for entire asset classes and regions. The model builds a market weather map from equity, bond, and commodity ETFs to highlight risk-on vs. risk-off conditions, and which sleeve of the market has historically run hottest in similar cross-asset environments.
Want to see the data fields, feature tables, and example SQL behind these ideas?
The Members Area dives deeper into each case with sample datasets, schema sketches, and pseudo-models. It stays educational and process-focused — not personal financial advice.